- Will the next elected US president be a woman?25¢25%
Early polling and prediction markets position Republican Vice President JD Vance as the leading 2028 contender, while the Democratic field remains fluid among Kamala Harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, and Pete Buttigieg. Several prominent women have signaled limited interest, including Gretchen Whitmer softening or stepping back from a bid and Nikki Haley confirming she will not run. The 2024 general election result has heightened trader focus on electability concerns for female nominees in both parties. No major candidates have declared, leaving room for shifts ahead of the 2026 midterms and formal primary contests, yet current dynamics sustain the elevated probability assigned to a male winner.
Rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.