- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30?5¢
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by December 31?51¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers, limiting their ability to advance major legislation without unified party support. After enacting Reconciliation 2.0 in June 2026 to fund immigration enforcement, House GOP leaders secured passage of a July budget resolution for a scaled-back $95 billion Reconciliation 3.0 package focused on defense spending, farm aid, and election measures. Senate Republicans have shown limited enthusiasm, citing fiscal concerns, the lack of spending offsets, and the need to address the September 30 government funding deadline first. Internal divisions among fiscal conservatives, proximity to the November midterms, and competing priorities such as Iran-related defense needs continue to shape the timeline and feasibility of another House vote on a full reconciliation bill.