Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?8¢
- Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?7¢
- Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Helder Barbalho finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent national polls consistently place him as the main challenger behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible due to prior convictions and is serving a prison sentence, leaving his son as the Liberal Party nominee and primary standard-bearer for the right-wing coalition. Fragmented support among other conservative figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos has limited their ability to overtake Flávio in aggregated surveys from August 2026. Trader consensus reflects this consolidation of opposition votes behind the single most prominent alternative, while Lula’s first-round advantage and the absence of a stronger moderate contender keep the second-place outcome relatively stable heading into the campaign’s final weeks.