- GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?11¢11%
Senate Republicans hold a 53-47 majority amid an ongoing government shutdown that began in early October, with President Trump repeatedly urging the chamber to invoke the nuclear option and eliminate the legislative filibuster to advance bills on a simple majority vote. Trump has tied the move to passing measures such as the SAVE America Act and preventing future Democratic actions like statehood for D.C. or Puerto Rico. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other GOP leaders have rejected the approach, citing insufficient support within the conference and long-term risks to minority protections. Some senators, including Ron Johnson, back the change, but procedural hurdles and internal divisions remain the central barriers. Midterm elections scheduled for November add pressure on both sides.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.