- Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026?62¢62%
The acute crisis engulfing the Dutch minority coalition of D66, VVD, and CDA stems from D66 and CDA’s November 11 agreement with opposition parties PRO and Volt on a tax amendment shifting roughly €1 billion in burden from labor to wealth via higher box 3 rates on assets and savings. VVD leaders, excluded from the talks, labeled the move a breach of the coalition accord and called for a “fundamental reset,” with the party set to vote against the measure in the imminent parliamentary vote. This clash over fiscal priorities in a government lacking a majority in either chamber has produced open threats of collapse, prompting the prime minister to cancel travel and schedule emergency debate. Traders’ 62.5% implied probability for a 2026 breakup reflects the immediate erosion of trust and procedural deadlock, weighed against the slim remaining window for negotiated continuation before year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of D66, VVD and CDA breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if D66, VVD or CDA ceases to be a coalition partner in the Dutch government (the Jetten cabinet, sworn in on February 23, 2026). A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – the cabinet offering its resignation to the King because of a breakdown between the coalition parties, – or the appointment of a new government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Prime Minister remains in office with a new coalition, as a minority government, or as head of a caretaker (demissionary) cabinet, this market will still resolve to “Yes.” A cabinet resignation that does not result from a breakdown between the coalition parties (e.g., following a successful motion of no confidence while D66, VVD and CDA all remain committed to the coalition) will not count. The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, threats to leave, or indications of an impending break will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.