Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?6¢
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?2¢
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?39¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 statement that he is “here for another term” has become the dominant factor shaping trader views on any near-term retirement announcement. The 76-year-old justice made the comment in a Wall Street Journal interview after an erroneous late-June NPR report briefly fueled speculation he would step down at the end of the Court’s term. Earlier reporting indicated Alito was already hiring clerks for the October 2026 term and planned to serve into 2027, consistent with his pattern of remaining on the bench while Republicans control the White House and Senate. Any announcement before the next term begins or before the 2026 midterms would allow a Republican-led confirmation of a younger replacement, but Alito’s direct comments have reduced the likelihood of an imminent departure. Resolution of the market hinges on an official announcement by the specified cutoff.