- Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31?94¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian attempts to seize or infiltrate Ternuvate, a rural settlement in Zaporizhzhia Oblast roughly 10-15 km from the line of contact, have centered on small sabotage and reconnaissance groups exploiting weather and terrain for brief incursions. In late January 2026, Russian forces briefly entered the area, planted flags, and released drone footage claiming capture, but Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces conducted rapid clearance operations within hours, eliminating or capturing the infiltrators and restoring full control. Ukrainian statements through February and March 2026 confirmed the settlement remained under their authority, with no sustained Russian presence on ISW maps. Broader Russian offensive activity in the Zaporizhzhia direction has involved incremental pressure and reserve deployments, while Ukrainian forces have conducted sweeps and limited counter-moves. Traders monitor ISW territorial updates for any renewed entry before resolution dates, noting the village's exposure to future infiltration attempts amid ongoing attrition.