Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?
- Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026?31¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Khatnie, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.121266° N, 37.565909° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces have sustained limited offensive pressure along the Kupiansk axis in Kharkiv Oblast, including repeated ground attacks and strikes near Khatnie northeast of Velykyi Burluk, yet Ukrainian defenses and counteractions have blocked confirmed territorial gains into the village as of mid-2026. ISW assessments document activity in February and renewed efforts through June and July without advances into Khatnie itself, consistent with the broader pattern of slow, costly Russian incremental movement across eastern fronts amid high attrition. Trader consensus reflects this stalled local momentum, with implied probabilities for capture by year-end remaining below 40 percent absent a breakthrough or major Ukrainian repositioning.