- Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?3¢
- Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by November 30, 2026?6¢
- Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?34¢
- Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?63¢
Russian forces continue pressing the Kostiantynivka axis with daily assaults, including 15–24 attacks reported in recent Ukrainian General Staff updates, supported by heavy drone strikes, guided bombs, and artillery. Fighting includes street-level engagements inside the city, where incremental Russian advances have been noted by analysts but remain contested by Ukrainian defenders through counterattacks and drone operations. Kostiantynivka forms part of Ukraine’s defensive “fortress belt,” and earlier Russian claims of full capture in July 2026 were disputed by Kyiv and independent assessments. The Royal Café Alex serves as a northern urban checkpoint in this market, so trader sentiment tracks the pace of Russian infiltration amid high attrition and Ukrainian efforts to hold key positions.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.