- Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?14¢
- Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?53¢
- Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?82¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Russian forces have conducted slow, grinding advances into Kostyantynivka since spring 2026, relying on small infantry infiltration groups to create contested gray zones rather than consolidated territorial gains. As of late July, the Institute for the Study of War assessed control over the city as disputed, with Ukrainian sources reporting up to 145 Russian troops inside urban areas amid denied Russian claims of full capture earlier that month. The Royal Café Alex, positioned in the northern sector, serves as a specific market checkpoint; ongoing pressure on supply routes and defensive lines in the Donetsk “fortress belt” continues to shape assessments of whether incremental Russian progress can reach this location by the resolution date. Ukrainian commanders describe the situation as manageable but deteriorating under sustained Russian assaults.