- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?1¢1%
Persistent geopolitical tensions since the February 2026 onset of US and Israeli strikes on Iran have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted, with IMF PortWatch and AIS data showing daily transits averaging just 7–9 vessels against an 85 pre-crisis baseline. Iranian demands for lifted blockades, sanctions relief, and asset releases, coupled with ongoing attacks, permit requirements, and a US naval presence, sustain the disruption with no near-term diplomatic breakthrough evident. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus backed by real capital that volumes will not reach the 60-transit 7-day average threshold by November 30. Tail risks include an unexpected ceasefire or major policy reversal that could rapidly restore flows.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.