Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
- Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?75¢
- Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?25¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration operations and assaults toward Rai-Oleksandrivka, a settlement east of Slovyansk in Donetsk Oblast, as part of broader efforts to pressure the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk axis. Independent assessments through mid-August 2026 indicate Russian units have reached eastern and southeastern outskirts with partial entry into peripheral areas, though Ukrainian forces continue to hold southern sectors and repel multiple attacks near Kryva Luka, Riznykivka, and other nearby points. Russian milbloggers have claimed full seizure, but these reports remain unconfirmed by geolocated evidence or Ukrainian statements, reflecting slowed momentum tied to reduced combat effectiveness in the 3rd Combined Arms Army. Ukrainian counterattacks and defensive actions have limited territorial gains, keeping the village contested amid ongoing artillery, drone, and small-unit engagements. Resolution hinges on verified control per mapping sources, with further Russian pushes or Ukrainian reinforcements likely to influence near-term outcomes.