- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?4¢4%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?11¢11%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?24¢24%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?28¢28%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?36¢36%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?43¢43%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?53¢53%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?53¢53%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?59¢59%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?60¢60%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?63¢63%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?67¢67%
- 4.4%November 30$276.7k Vol.
- 10.5%December 31$3.4m Vol.
- 2%24%January 31, 2027$240.4k Vol.
- 1%27.5%February 28, 2027$49.6k Vol.
- 35.5%March 31, 2027$381.7k Vol.
- 42.5%April 30, 2027$85.4k Vol.
- 2%52.5%May 31, 2027$140.5k Vol.
- 1%53%June 30, 2027$186.4k Vol.
- 1%58.5%July 31, 2027$9k Vol.
- 1%60%August 31, 2027$17.7k Vol.
- 63%September 30, 2027$7.5k Vol.
- 67%October 31, 2027$76.7k Vol.
US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 produced agreement on a large-scale prisoner exchange but no progress toward a broader ceasefire, with Russia maintaining demands for major territorial concessions and limits on Ukrainian security arrangements. Follow-up meetings between US envoys and Putin in Moscow on November 12 yielded continued dialogue without resolution on core issues, while fighting and strikes on energy infrastructure persisted. Earlier localized humanitarian pauses, such as the October 27 Oleshky truce, and an announced energy ceasefire failed to expand. Zelenskyy has signaled openness to freezing lines with guarantees, though Russian officials continue to reject temporary pauses in favor of a comprehensive settlement. Further discussions are scheduled around the late-November APEC summit.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.