- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?7¢7%
- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027?14¢14%
- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027?28¢28%
- 3%7.2%December 31$223.2k Vol.
- 2%14%March 31, 2027$98.1k Vol.
- 5%28.5%June 30, 2027$37k Vol.
Russian forces continue pressing the Orikhiv sector in Zaporizhzhia Oblast through small-unit infantry infiltrations, vehicle-borne assaults, and heavy use of guided aerial bombs alongside FPV drones, yet Ukrainian South Group units have repeatedly detected and repelled these probes on the approaches, maintaining firm control of the town and its train station as of mid-November 2026. Ukrainian reports detail significant Russian equipment and personnel losses in the sector since October, when earlier capture deadlines passed unmet. Trader probabilities for Russian seizure of the train station by year-end remain modest, reflecting the limited territorial gains observed on ISW assessments amid Ukraine’s defensive depth and ongoing attrition. Winter conditions and any shifts in Russian force allocation elsewhere on the front could influence the pace of operations through early 2027.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train Station Location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.