Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢
- Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢
- Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢
- Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢
- Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?1¢
- Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢
- Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢
- Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?2¢
- Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?1¢
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?36¢
- Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?1¢
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?1¢
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Netanyahu's slim lead reflects trader focus on Israel's October 2026 legislative election, where polls show his bloc in a tight contest and his government facing court challenges and coalition strains that could force his exit before 2027. The near-even "none before 2027" share stems from the absence of comparable near-term electoral or institutional triggers for other listed figures, including Díaz-Canel whose term runs to 2028 amid ongoing economic pressures but no scheduled leadership change. Lower probabilities for candidates such as Merz, Macron, and Lula align with stable parliamentary or constitutional timelines through the resolution window. This balance leaves the market sensitive to late polling shifts or coalition developments in Israel that could separate the top outcomes.