- Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?8¢
- Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?27¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) located in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka1.png Location in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka2.png Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka3.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZH4QxaEkdvhuK7xN9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces have intensified infiltration operations northwest of Kostiantynivka toward Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka as part of a broader battlefield air interdiction campaign using glide bombs and drones to disrupt Ukrainian logistics ahead of potential advances on the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk axis. Ukrainian units, including marine scouts, have repelled small groups and captured Russian personnel attempting to stage flag-raising footage in the settlement, while conducting clearing actions to disrupt infiltrators. Confirmed territorial gains remain limited, with Russian sources reporting localized probes but no consolidated control amid Ukrainian defensive positions and counterattacks. Ongoing strikes on nearby roads and rear areas continue to shape conditions, though overall Russian monthly advances across Donetsk Oblast have stayed modest into mid-August 2026.