Netanyahu out by...?
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?45¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election represents the dominant near-term catalyst for the “Netanyahu out by…?” market. Recent polling shows the opposition “Together” alliance and allied Zionist parties holding a narrow lead over the Likud-led bloc, raising the prospect of a new governing coalition that would end Netanyahu’s tenure. Netanyahu’s rejection of the proposed Gaza roadmap and emphasis on security-focused campaigning reflect efforts to consolidate his base ahead of the vote. Traders’ roughly even split on removal by year-end incorporates both the competitive electoral math and historical precedent of post-election coalition negotiations extending into December. Any shift in polling averages, coalition arithmetic, or legal developments before or immediately after October 27 could rapidly adjust implied probabilities.