- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?47¢47%
- Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?59¢59%
- Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?68¢68%
- 4%47%December 31$3.3m Vol.
- 6%58.5%March 31, 2027$24.9k Vol.
- 2%67.5%June 30, 2027$189.5k Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Israel’s inconclusive October 27 election left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc with 53 Knesset seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc with 48, short of the 61-seat majority needed for government formation. Arab parties secured a record 19 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers despite most Jewish parties’ longstanding refusal to partner with them. Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister while President Isaac Herzog granted Eisenkot the initial mandate on November 8 to build a coalition within 28 days, extendable by 14 days. Ongoing negotiations center on conscription policies, security priorities, and possible unity arrangements or new elections in early 2027. These procedural timelines and coalition arithmetic shape trader assessments of when Netanyahu might leave office.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.