- Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?3¢
Russian forces maintain limited infiltration in northern districts of Kupiansk and attempt movement through the gray-zone settlement of Holubivka, yet Ukrainian authorities report control over the municipality itself with Russian bridgeheads north of the city shrinking under sustained pressure. In mid-October 2026, Ukrainian reports confirmed strikes on civilian evacuation convoys near the city and noted dozens of Russian personnel scattered in northern areas, consistent with ongoing positional combat rather than a coordinated push for full municipal control. These developments align with trader consensus assigning low probability to rapid Russian capture, reflecting the absence of major verified advances in the sector and Ukrainian efforts to restrict logistics across the Oskil River. No large-scale offensive operations have altered the assessed frontline in recent weeks.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, (49.713460° N, 37.614763° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.