Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
- Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?5¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Ukrainian forces have largely cleared Russian infiltrators from Kupiansk following failed Russian attempts to seize and hold the city in late 2025 and early 2026, reducing Russian presence to small unconsolidated groups estimated at under 3 percent of the urban area by mid-2026. Russian claims of full capture proved overstated, with Ukrainian units conducting successful clearing operations that eliminated most sabotage elements, including those using underground pipelines, and restored firm control over the majority of the city and surrounding positions. Russian Western Grouping forces have faced heavy losses, prompting reported redeployments to other sectors such as Lyman, while limited ongoing probes and glide bomb strikes have not produced consolidated gains. These battlefield outcomes reflect Ukrainian initiative in the Kupiansk direction amid broader attritional fighting along the Oskil River line.