- Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?48¢48%
Russian forces have consolidated control over Chasiv Yar following Ukrainian withdrawals reported in early November 2026, after more than two years of attritional fighting in Donetsk Oblast. Russian units advanced primarily through flanking maneuvers around the town rather than direct assaults on its ruins, reaching positions beyond both flanks by August 2026 and accelerating gains in the final months. Ukrainian observers and open-source tracking confirm the last infantry positions were abandoned amid pressure on supply lines tied to nearby areas like Kostiantynivka. Ongoing Russian offensive operations continue in the broader Chasiv Yar direction, with attempts to infiltrate and seize additional ground toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, while Ukrainian units report inflicting losses on infantry, equipment, and drones. Winter weather and force availability remain key variables for any further shifts along this sector of the front.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.