- Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?<1¢
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by October 31?4¢
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?6¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since succeeding his father in March 2026, following severe injuries sustained in the February US-Israeli strikes, has fueled speculation about his location and capacity to govern. Reports in July 2026 of a possible departure from Iran, including unverified claims of transfer to Russia for treatment, prompted denials from Israeli officials who assessed he remained inside the country, wounded but issuing directives from a secure site. By late August, Iranian statements and limited video releases described him as active, while Western and opposition sources cited regime insiders raising doubts about his health or survival, alongside strict security protocols limiting access. Trader views on an exit by a given date hinge on whether ongoing conflict risks, medical needs, or internal power dynamics prompt relocation versus continued concealment within Iran.