- Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?86¢86%
Lula's re-election on October 25, 2026, has strengthened his negotiating position for filling the long-vacant STF seat left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement. Recent reporting highlights active talks with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre to advance a nomination, potentially of former Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco, in November before the new legislative session begins in February 2027. This timing aims to avoid a more conservative Senate bloc. Lula's earlier nomination of Jorge Messias was rejected by the Senate in April 2026, marking the first such defeat in over a century. Additional STF vacancies are expected through 2030 due to compulsory retirements of ministers including Luiz Fux, Cármen Lúcia, and Gilmar Mendes. These dynamics, combined with Lula's mandate to shape the court, center trader attention on near-term announcement prospects amid Senate confirmation requirements.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.