Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?40¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Recent U.S.-brokered negotiations through the Board of Peace produced a July 2026 roadmap for phased Hamas disarmament in Gaza, tied to Israeli withdrawals and transfer of security functions to a technocratic Palestinian body. Hamas officials signaled acceptance of the plan, including staged weapons surrender and tunnel decommissioning, yet Israel has voiced security concerns and stressed that full withdrawal follows only after verified decommissioning. Implementation timelines remain contingent on verification mechanisms, mediator coordination with Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, and resolution of outstanding conditions in the broader ceasefire framework. Trader pricing near even odds reflects uncertainty over whether a formal Hamas commitment will solidify by year-end amid ongoing diplomatic frictions and phased execution risks.