- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?8¢8%
US assessments from October 2026 highlight delays in People's Liberation Army readiness stemming from anti-corruption campaigns, making a full-scale amphibious invasion before 2028 increasingly unlikely despite Beijing's 2027 capability target. Chinese President Xi Jinping's November 12 remarks stressed peaceful reunification under the one-China principle without referencing force, aligning with ongoing gray-zone pressure through naval deployments, area-denial drills involving the Liaoning carrier group, and routine aircraft sorties rather than overt invasion preparations. Traders view these patterns, combined with interest in Taiwan's 2028 election outcomes, as evidence favoring non-kinetic coercion over immediate military action through December 2027.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.