- Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?18¢
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Traders assign an 83.5% probability that no additional country will exit OPEC in 2026 because the group has stabilized following the United Arab Emirates’ departure effective May 1. Iraq publicly weighed leaving in June over production quota disputes tied to the ongoing regional conflict but ultimately reaffirmed membership while seeking higher baselines. Recent reports that Venezuela is reviewing an exit amid closer U.S. ties remain unconfirmed speculation without an official decision. Core members continue coordinated quota adjustments through OPEC+ mechanisms, with scheduled capacity reviews and output target pauses through year-end, indicating sustained institutional commitment rather than further fragmentation.