Xi Jinping out before 2027?
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?5¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Xi Jinping's consolidated authority as CCP General Secretary, state president, and Central Military Commission chairman underpins trader consensus that he will remain in power through the end of 2026. No designated successor has emerged, internal party mechanisms show no scheduled transition ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, and recent military purges plus ongoing anti-corruption efforts have reinforced centralized control rather than signaling fractures. Active diplomacy, including 2026 summits and policy addresses, further aligns with sustained leadership. While sudden health developments or unforeseen elite reversals could theoretically alter this trajectory, current evidence of institutional dominance and absence of credible challenges supports the near-certain implied probability against removal before 2027.