- Xi Jinping out before 2027?2¢2%
Xi Jinping’s position as paramount leader remains entrenched following the Chinese Communist Party’s Fifth Plenum in late October 2026, which ratified record expulsions of officials, including senior military figures, and scheduled the 21st National Party Congress for the second half of 2027. Traders assign a 98.4 percent probability that he stays in office through the end of 2026 because the plenum reinforced party discipline measures and prepared the ground for his expected fourth term without any public signals of resignation or removal. Institutional consolidation through ongoing anti-corruption campaigns and leadership purges has eliminated potential challengers while maintaining centralized authority. Realistic shifts in odds before 2027 would require unforeseen health developments or acute internal crises capable of disrupting the scheduled transition timeline.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.