- Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?4¢4%
Extensive prior litigation has shaped trader consensus around the 92% implied probability for "No." Courts at multiple levels, including federal appeals and the Supreme Court, dismissed nearly all 2020 election challenges for insufficient evidence or procedural grounds, with no successful rulings finding widespread fraud capable of altering outcomes. By late 2026, statutes of limitations, res judicata principles, and the passage of multiple election cycles create significant structural barriers to new viable cases. Traders view fresh filings as unlikely to produce the requested ruling absent extraordinary new evidence or procedural shifts, though isolated lower-court actions or appeals remain theoretically possible within narrow windows.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any court in the United States issues a ruling that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of votes occurred in at least one US state during the 2020 United States Presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ruling is defined as any written order, judgement, opinion, or decision, including per curiam opinions, summary orders and sua sponte rulings issued by a relevant court. Unwritten oral rulings, tentative rulings, settlements, orders to show cause, or other procedures which do not constitute a finalized ruling will not count. A qualifying ruling of fraud must find that widespread, intentional voter fraud or vote-manipulation occured during the 2020 United States Presidential election. Procedural irregularities, administrative errors, or isolated rulings on individual cases of voter fraud will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.