Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?6¢
- Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?28¢
- Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?13¢
- Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?3¢
- Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?3¢
- Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?10¢
- Will Candace Owens be arrested before 2027?6¢
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before 2027?5¢
- Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?1¢
- Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?12¢
- Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027?12¢
- Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before 2027?11¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ongoing DOJ investigations and congressional criminal referrals targeting former intelligence officials such as John Brennan for alleged false statements have sustained trader attention on high-profile cases. Mahmoud Khalil's prior immigration detention and ongoing deportation proceedings stemming from 2025 campus protest involvement position him as a leading contender amid expanded enforcement actions. Broader administration efforts to pursue cases involving figures like Anthony Fauci or James Comey reflect institutional scrutiny patterns, though resolution depends on specific indictments or court outcomes before the 2027 cutoff. Scheduled hearings, potential appeals, and any new referrals could shift probabilities, while historical low arrest rates for such officials underscore the contested nature of these markets.