- Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before 2027?14¢14%
- Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?11¢11%
- Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?8¢8%
- Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027?8¢8%
- Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?6¢6%
- Will Susan Rice be arrested before 2027?5¢5%
- Will Candace Owens be arrested before 2027?5¢5%
- Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?4¢4%
- Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027?4¢4%
- Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?4¢4%
- Will Kash Patel be arrested before 2027?2¢2%
- Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?2¢2%
- 6%13.5%Lee Jun-seok$1.6k Vol.
- 10.5%John Brennan$44.2k Vol.
- 7.5%James Comey$43.4k Vol.
- 1%7.5%Mahmoud Khalil$6.1k Vol.
- 5.5%James Clapper$10.8k Vol.
- 5.1%Susan Rice$2.5k Vol.
- 1%4.8%Candace Owens$389.5 Vol.
- 3.8%Tom Homan$52.7k Vol.
- 3.6%Brandon Johnson$4.1k Vol.
- 3.5%Anthony Fauci$244.2k Vol.
- 2.2%Kash Patel$997.1 Vol.
- 2%Pam Bondi$7.2k Vol.
The short resolution window until December 31, 2026, constrains this multi-outcome market, where traders assign the highest implied probabilities to John Brennan near 12-13 percent, followed by Mahmoud Khalil around 9-11 percent and James Comey in the 7-9 percent range. Ongoing federal investigations and legal proceedings involving former intelligence officials, protest-related cases, and international figures shape positioning, though no confirmed indictments or arrests of listed individuals have materialized in recent weeks. Active enforcement actions by agencies such as the DOJ and ICE continue across various categories, but the compressed timeline limits opportunities for new developments to trigger qualifying events. Any court rulings, unsealed charges, or diplomatic shifts in the coming weeks could alter consensus before the deadline.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.