- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?50¢50%
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?47¢47%
- Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?<1¢<1%
- Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?<1¢<1%
1%50.1%Ulf Kristersson$2.6m Vol.
3%46.5%Magdalena Andersson$3.4m Vol.
0.5%Ebba Busch$1.1m Vol.
0.2%Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist$798.4k Vol.
The post-September 2026 election deadlock keeps the market tight, with Ulf Kristersson at 50.1% and Magdalena Andersson at 46.5% reflecting trader assessment of fragile parliamentary arithmetic. The left bloc secured a narrow 176-173 seat majority, yet internal divisions—particularly Centre Party resistance to Left Party cabinet posts—have blocked Andersson, leading to rejected prime ministerial votes. Recent shifts, including Sweden Democrats dropping cabinet demands and agreeing to abstain while the Centre Party demands detailed governing plans from both sides by mid-November, have narrowed Andersson’s edge and boosted Kristersson’s caretaker prospects. A Centre Party tilt, successful cross-bloc deal, or snap election risk could quickly widen the gap before resolution.
Rules
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.