- Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?30¢30%
- Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?30¢30%
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?30¢30%
- Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?29¢29%
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?28¢28%
- Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?24¢24%
- Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?23¢23%
- Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?22¢22%
- Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?20¢20%
- Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?20¢20%
- Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?16¢16%
- Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?14¢14%
9%29.5%Jared Kushner$111.1k Vol.
8%29.5%Steve Witkoff$258.5k Vol.
8%29.5%Abbas Araghchi$29.1k Vol.
9%29%Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani$195.1k Vol.
1%28%Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf$141.7k Vol.
2%24%Rafael Grossi$87k Vol.
6%23%Majid Takht-Ravanchi$70.4k Vol.
10%21.5%Kazem Gharibabadi$64.5k Vol.
13%19.5%J.D. Vance$111.2k Vol.
3%19.5%Nick Stewart$59k Vol.
14%15.5%Ishaq Dar$96.2k Vol.
14.5%Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi$82.5k Vol.
US and Iranian officials continue indirect negotiations mediated by Qatar over sanctions relief, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and limits on Iran's nuclear program, though progress remains limited following the expiration of a June memorandum of understanding. Recent developments include Qatari shuttle diplomacy in early November, proposals for a condensed two-day framework, and public statements from Iranian officials insisting on preconditions such as ending the naval blockade before broader talks. On November 12, President Trump stated that a deal was unnecessary given existing leverage, shifting focus elsewhere while earlier comments left room for diplomacy. Vice President Vance has participated in related discussions. No high-level direct attendance has been confirmed recently, and the absence of a breakthrough by late 2026 could constrain attendance at any formal round before year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.