- Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?68¢68%
- Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?33¢33%
67.5%Democratic$1.4m Vol.
32.5%Republican$1.3m Vol.
Democratic prospects for the 2028 presidential election benefit from recent midterm results showing substantial gains for the party in congressional and state races, consistent with historical patterns of challenges for the incumbent party during an open contest. As of November 2026, no major candidates have formally declared, yet early primary polling and prediction market pricing place Democratic figures such as Jon Ossoff and Kamala Harris ahead of Republican options led by JD Vance. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 67.5 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting assessments of voter sentiment, the absence of an incumbent seeking reelection, and competitive general-election matchups in available surveys. Scheduled primary activity and further polling in the coming months could shift these assessments.
Rules
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.