- Will Democrats win young men in the midterms?99¢99%
- Will Republicans win young men in the midterms?<1¢<1%
Market pricing reflects trader consensus that Democrats hold a commanding lead among young men heading into the 2026 midterms, consistent with sustained polling trends on issues such as education funding, climate initiatives, and healthcare access. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in the 18-29 male demographic and recent primary turnout data showing continued preference for Democratic candidates in key battleground areas. The elevated implied probability accounts for limited recent shifts in this voting bloc. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include stronger Republican messaging on economic pressures and border security, changes in turnout among working-class subsets, or late developments in swing-state campaigns that alter voter priorities before November.
Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of men in the age range of 18-24 in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for men in the 18-24 age range, this market will resolve based on the narrowest age range that begins with the youngest age for which data is available. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by cbsnews.com or, should cbsnews.com also not provide applicable polling, foxnews.com. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".