- Will CDU be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?43¢
- Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?51¢
- Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?51¢
- Will Grüne be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?38¢
- Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?36¢
- Will FDP be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?<1¢
- Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?7¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Sachsen-Anhalt and the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election shows the AfD consistently leading with 41–43 percent, approaching or securing an absolute majority of seats in the 83-member parliament. The CDU trails at 22–24 percent, Die Linke holds around 13 percent, and the SPD remains near 6–7 percent, with smaller parties like the Greens, BSW, and FDP hovering at or below the 5 percent threshold. The current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition lacks a projected majority, while other parties maintain a firewall against cooperation with the AfD, limiting coalition options despite the party’s strength. This dynamic, stable in surveys through mid-August, shapes expectations for government formation around the AfD’s potential standalone majority or limited partnerships.