- Will Pete Buttigieg be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?23¢23%
- Will Andy Beshear be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?20¢20%
- Will Ro Khanna be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?17¢17%
- Will Gavin Newsom be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?15¢15%
- Will Rahm Emanuel be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?14¢14%
- Will Josh Shapiro be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?9¢9%
- Will Kamala Harris be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?9¢9%
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?4¢4%
- Will Jon Ossoff be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?2¢2%
- Will Stephen A. Smith be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?<1¢<1%
- Will Jon Stewart be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?<1¢<1%
No major Democrat has formally declared a 2028 presidential bid as of mid-October 2026, leaving the field open and supporting the 50% probability on Other for the first announcement. Pete Buttigieg’s extensive national travel, speaking engagements, and participation in post-midterm party strategy sessions have elevated his positioning among listed contenders. Rahm Emanuel’s role in upcoming gatherings of potential candidates similarly sustains attention. Gavin Newsom’s statement deferring to Kamala Harris if she runs, combined with Harris’s recent comments leaving the door open, shapes expectations around timing. Andy Beshear’s October remarks revisiting past pledges and lower signals from figures such as Josh Shapiro or Ro Khanna further inform the current trader consensus reflected in these probabilities.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.