- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?14¢14%
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?6¢6%
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?6¢6%
- Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?2¢2%
- Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?2¢2%
- Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?1¢1%
- Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?1¢1%
- 1%14%Druzkhivka$474.3k Vol.
- 1%6%Kramatorsk$315.3k Vol.
- 1%5.5%Sloviansk$200.6k Vol.
- 2.1%Kherson$22.8k Vol.
- 1.5%Zaporizhia$235.5k Vol.
- 1.3%Kharkiv$130.5k Vol.
- 1.3%Sumy$93.8k Vol.
Russia’s limited battlefield momentum and active US-led negotiations in Abu Dhabi shape trader views on any major city entries by year-end. Russian forces have recorded only incremental advances or infiltrations near Dobropillya and parts of Kostyantynivka in recent weeks, with no confirmed seizure of sizable urban centers since earlier in 2026. Ukrainian counter-moves east of Slovyansk and south of Novopavlivka, combined with net territorial losses for Russian units in October, underscore the slow pace. Ongoing talks, prisoner-exchange discussions, and Moscow’s insistence on broad territorial and security demands introduce uncertainty over whether intensified operations will occur before the December 31 cutoff.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dopropillia (48.46978658204883° N, 37.08593384222816° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/vipjg3UsWpqRnhM6A) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08) which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.