Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?23¢
- Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?8¢
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?55¢
- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?82¢
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?27¢
- Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?4¢
- Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?7¢
- Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?6¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces continue incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast, focusing infiltration and glide-bomb tactics around Kostyantynivka and toward the broader Donbas fortress belt including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, while smaller probes occur near Kupyansk and Lyman. Ukraine’s mid-August recapture of over 700 square kilometers and 26 settlements in the Oleksandrivskyi sector of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast demonstrated effective counteroffensives that have slowed Russian momentum and restored defensive depth. Intensified Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian rear areas contrast with Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian military and energy targets, affecting logistics and sustainment. With roughly four months remaining until December 31, trader assessments hinge on whether Russia can convert localized infiltrations into consolidated control of additional urban centers amid ongoing attrition and Ukrainian reinforcement capacity.