- Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?80¢80%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in the United States?6¢6%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Turkey?3¢3%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia?3¢3%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in the UAE?2¢2%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Kazakhstan?2¢2%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Serbia?2¢2%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Switzerland?2¢2%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Saudi Arabia?1¢1%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Belarus?1¢1%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?1¢1%
- Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Austria?1¢1%
9%79.5%No meeting by December 31, 2027$69.8k Vol.
1%6.3%United States$7.3k Vol.
3.4%Turkey$6.4k Vol.
2.9%Russia$3.6k Vol.
1%2.4%UAE$5.2k Vol.
2.3%Kazakhstan$4.2k Vol.
1%2.1%Serbia$4.9k Vol.
1.9%Switzerland$4.2k Vol.
1%1.4%Saudi Arabia$3.6k Vol.
1%1.3%Belarus$4.3k Vol.
1.3%Ukraine$3.7k Vol.- 1.2%Austria$3.5k Vol.
Recent US-mediated trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 produced agreement on a major prisoner exchange but yielded no progress on core territorial disputes or security guarantees, underscoring the distance between Moscow’s demands for Ukrainian concessions in Donbas and Kyiv’s insistence on a ceasefire first. Putin has reiterated that any direct leader-level encounter requires extensive preparation and has floated restrictive conditions, while Zelenskyy has highlighted a potential diplomatic window before 2027 without confirming bilateral plans. These developments, combined with ongoing battlefield dynamics and unresolved differences over European security architecture, sustain trader consensus that no Putin-Zelenskyy meeting will occur by the end of 2027, with low probabilities assigned to specific third-country venues absent concrete scheduling signals.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.