- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?11¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?1¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?43¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?1¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?8¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?31¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?4¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?<1¢
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, has anchored the federal funds rate target range at 3.50-3.75% through mid-2026 and shaped trader expectations for modest tightening or stability by December. Recent July FOMC minutes highlighted that many officials would favor hikes if price pressures fail to ease, while updated dot plots showed a split toward higher year-end rates amid solid GDP growth and a stable labor market. Softer June-July inflation prints and weaker payrolls have tempered near-term hike odds ahead of the September meeting, yet persistent core readings keep the 3.75% and 4.00% outcomes as the leading consensus, reflecting the balance between dual-mandate risks and limited easing signals.