Gold trades near $4,430–$4,480 in early September 2026 after consolidating below $4,700–$4,770 resistance following a mid-year correction from the January peak above $5,600. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including Chair Kevin Warsh’s signals and fluctuating September hike odds near 50% on CME FedWatch, have lifted real yields and supported the dollar, capping upside despite central bank purchases and Middle East geopolitical risks that also elevate oil-driven inflation concerns. Traders are watching the September 15–16 FOMC decision, upcoming CPI and PPI prints, and nonfarm payrolls for shifts in rate-path expectations that could alter the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. Recent price action shows compression around the $4,450 support zone, with any sustained break influencing whether higher thresholds are tested before month-end.