Gold prices, recently trading near $4,440 per ounce after August gains exceeding 9%, face pressure from shifting Federal Reserve expectations amid sticky inflation above the 2% target. Hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole lifted September 2026 rate-hike probabilities above 50%, supporting a stronger dollar and higher real yields that raise gold's opportunity cost. Offsetting this, record central bank purchases—289 tonnes in Q2 2026—provide structural support, while Middle East tensions sustain safe-haven flows. Key near-term catalysts include the September 10 CPI release and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, which could clarify the policy path and influence whether prices sustain levels near $4,500 or retest recent highs above $4,600.