Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly ongoing disruptions to Strait of Hormuz shipments amid the US-Iran conflict, remain the dominant driver supporting WTI crude prices in the low-to-mid $80s per barrel as of mid-August 2026. Recent inventory builds and diplomatic talks on reopening the strait have introduced volatility, yet risk premiums persist amid supply concerns and attacks on Gulf shipping. Modest global demand growth forecasts around 0.6–0.7 mb/d for 2026 contrast with rising non-OPEC+ supply, though near-term resolution hinges on FOMC-adjacent macro data, OPEC+ output decisions, and any de-escalation milestones that could shift trader-implied odds on price thresholds. Current futures levels reflect skin-in-the-game consensus pricing in these uncertainties rather than guaranteed outcomes.