- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?98¢98%
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢<1%
- 98.5%0 (0 bps)$9.6m Vol.
- 0.8%1 (25 bps)$3.8m Vol.
- 0.2%2 (50 bps)$3.6m Vol.
- 0.2%3 (75 bps)$3m Vol.
- 0.2%4 (100 bps)$2.8m Vol.
- 0.2%12+ (300+ bps)$4.2m Vol.
Trader consensus on zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026, priced at a 98.6% implied probability, reflects the Federal Reserve's data-dependent stance amid inflation readings that have remained above the 2% target and a resilient labor market supporting steady growth. Recent CPI and employment releases have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will hold the policy rate steady rather than ease, consistent with forward guidance prioritizing price stability over premature cuts. This market-implied path contrasts with earlier cycles but aligns with current Treasury yields and reduced rate-cut bets in futures markets. A sharp deterioration in growth or faster disinflation could still introduce volatility, though recent indicators show limited immediate catalysts for such a shift.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.