How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?86¢
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?10¢
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?3¢
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢
- Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Recent inflation persistence above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated energy prices following geopolitical tensions, has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward zero rate cuts in 2026. With the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50–3.75% through the July FOMC meeting and the June dot plot showing multiple participants favoring hikes, trader consensus now prices in a policy pause or modest tightening rather than easing. Forward-looking indicators such as fed funds futures and analyst revisions from firms like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan reflect this hawkish pivot, as earlier 2026 cut expectations have been deferred into 2027 amid resilient growth and labor-market data. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and December FOMC meetings and fresh CPI releases that could alter the rate path.