- Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?1¢
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?97¢
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s September 2026 statements explicitly ruled out an IPO this year, citing AI safety priorities and the need for additional internal readiness before accessing public markets. This aligns with the company’s pursuit of a private bridge round targeting at least $30 billion at roughly $1.4 trillion pre-money valuation, building on its March 2026 $852 billion post-money mark and recent annualized revenue near $50 billion. With a confidential S-1 filed in June and CFO Sarah Friar targeting 2027, trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% market-implied odds for no IPO by December 31, 2026, prices in the low likelihood of any reversal in the remaining weeks. A sudden shift in safety assessments or governance could theoretically reopen the window, though current fundamentals and leadership guidance make that improbable.
Rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.