- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?2¢
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?10¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities and persistent disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of crude oil prices, with WTI trading near $91 per barrel and Brent near $95 as of early September 2026. These levels reflect an 8-9% weekly gain amid reduced tanker traffic and supply losses exceeding 11 million barrels per day at peaks earlier in the conflict, though prices sit well below the 2008 all-time high of $147.27 for WTI. Large inventory draws, including OECD stocks falling to multi-decade lows, have tightened near-term balances and supported the rally, while weaker Chinese demand and rerouting of some flows have capped further upside. Analysts note the market has priced in a sustained geopolitical premium but anticipate moderation if flows normalize or global growth softens, with EIA and other forecasts pointing to average prices in the mid-$80s for Q3 before potential easing. Key near-term catalysts include updates on Hormuz transit volumes, any diplomatic signals, and upcoming inventory and demand data releases.