Fed rate hike by...?
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?28¢
- Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?42¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent U.S. inflation readings near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven partly by energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, while the effective federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 FOMC decision to hold steady. Three committee members dissented in favor of a 25 basis point increase, underscoring internal division even as the unemployment rate holds near 4.1% and economic growth continues at a solid pace. CME FedWatch futures currently price a modest chance of tightening at the September 15–16 meeting, with the balance of probabilities leaning toward a potential December move. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI and employment reports due in the coming weeks, followed by the September FOMC statement and updated dot plot, all of which will shape trader views on whether inflation pressures warrant a 2026 rate hike.