- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31?2¢2%
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?90¢90%
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31?8¢8%
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on December 31?2¢2%
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on December 31?1¢1%
Recent U.S.-China trade negotiations, including the late September Trump-Xi summit, produced a two-month extension of the reciprocal tariff truce through November 10, 2026, along with targeted reductions to most-favored-nation levels on $30 billion in non-sensitive goods each way. These steps have kept the effective baseline near 10 percent while pausing higher escalations. Core Section 301 tariffs on roughly $370 billion of imports, layered with a 12.5 percent forced-labor component, continue pending the ongoing four-year review, but domestic industry support and the absence of new escalatory measures reinforce trader expectations that the year-end average rate will settle in the moderate band. The truce expiration and review timeline remain the primary near-term variables that could shift positioning before December 31.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.