US strike on Colombia by...?
- US strike on Colombia by December 31?33¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Tensions between the United States and Colombia escalated in early 2026 following U.S. military strikes on suspected drug vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, alongside the operation that removed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. President Trump publicly criticized then-President Gustavo Petro over narcotics trafficking and floated military options, prompting Petro to highlight threats to national sovereignty. Relations have since shifted toward closer coordination, including joint targeting of cartel leaders and U.S. intelligence support for Colombian counternarcotics missions. With a new far-right administration taking office in August 2026 and advancing a military partnership focused on drug interdiction, traders assess the risk of unilateral strikes on Colombian territory as limited absent major reversals in bilateral cooperation or escalation in regional trafficking routes.