- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by November 30?9¢9%
- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by December 31?24¢24%
- 2%8.5%November 30$10.1k Vol.
- 3%23.5%December 31$146k Vol.
US Treasury actions under Operation Economic Outcast, including October 2026 designations targeting Iran's shadow fleet and petroleum traders, have maintained pressure on Tehran following the July revocation of the June 60-day General License X that briefly authorized Iranian crude sales through August 21. Iranian exports have fallen near zero amid the naval blockade, with only limited volumes via Iraq, while Brent crude trades around $72 per barrel as markets discount renewed supply risks. Ongoing Switzerland-mediated talks tie any reissuance of waivers to verifiable steps on Strait of Hormuz transit, IAEA access, and nuclear compliance, with negotiators setting a 60-day framework for a broader deal that includes potential asset releases. Traders monitor upcoming diplomatic milestones and any OFAC general license updates for shifts in implied probabilities.
Rules
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.