US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?17¢
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy and energy market pressures drove the June 2026 issuance of General License X, a 60-day Treasury waiver authorizing Iranian crude and petrochemical sales through August 21 amid a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The revocation on July 7 following tanker attacks in the waterway restored sanctions, requiring wind-down of authorized transactions by July 17 and tightening global supply expectations. Oil traders are monitoring Brent and WTI benchmarks, Treasury yield movements, and any renewed talks ahead of potential FOMC or IAEA updates that could influence sanction policy. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether interim relief will be reissued before year-end deadlines, with resolution hinging on verifiable de-escalation and compliance milestones.