- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?2¢2%
Diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Iran conflict remain stalled over Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, with Tehran repeatedly declaring it will not permit any of the material—estimated by the IAEA at roughly 440 kilograms enriched to 60 percent prior to the June 2025 strikes—to leave the country. Iran has barred IAEA inspectors from key sites including the Isfahan tunnel complex where much of the stockpile is believed buried, citing ongoing US military threats, and has rejected proposals for third-party removal such as those floated by Russia. US officials continue to seek verifiable reductions in enrichment capacity and inspector access as conditions for any broader agreement involving sanctions relief or asset releases, while mediators including Qatar explore interim arrangements. Recent IAEA reporting underscores the loss of continuity of knowledge on the stockpile, keeping the prospect of US acquisition dependent on unresolved negotiations or further military developments.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.