US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?7¢
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?2¢
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Negotiations between the US and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program remain centered on the disposition of Iran's approximately 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. US officials have repeatedly demanded removal or destruction of the material as a core condition for any agreement, while Iranian positions have included phased downblending inside the country under IAEA oversight. A June 2026 statement from a senior US official indicated that an emerging memorandum of understanding would lead to Washington obtaining the enriched uranium, potentially through on-site destruction followed by removal. Ongoing technical talks and implementation of prior memoranda could still shift timelines, though persistent gaps on enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and verification continue to constrain near-term outcomes. Trader probabilities reflect uncertainty around exact transfer mechanisms and resolution dates.