- Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?1¢
- Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?5¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains subject to a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining technical readiness on a roughly 36-month timeline for any underground test at the Nevada National Security Site. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with other nations responded to U.S. assessments of Russian and Chinese activities, including concerns over low-yield or decoupled experiments, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments, simulations, and stockpile stewardship rather than yield-producing detonations. No full-scale explosive test has occurred, and funding requests plus congressional oversight continue to prioritize non-explosive methods amid arms-control considerations. Trader pricing on near-term resolution dates reflects these procedural, technical, and diplomatic constraints, with potential catalysts limited to future budget actions, diplomatic developments, or explicit policy shifts within the relevant window.