- Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?5¢
President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear explosive testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China remains the central political driver behind this market. Subsequent statements from the Energy Secretary clarified that current efforts focus on non-critical system tests rather than nuclear detonations, while NNSA officials and lab directors have reiterated no technical or military requirement for explosive tests. Recent non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiments at the Nevada National Security Site aim to improve detection of low-yield foreign tests, not conduct U.S. detonations. Congressional opposition, including Senate visits and nominee commitments against testing, combined with preparation timelines of 6–36 months, continues to constrain near-term action through late 2026. Trader consensus reflects these institutional and procedural hurdles.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.