- US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by December 31?12¢12%
The Trump administration has maintained maximum pressure on Cuba’s energy sector through Executive Order 14404 and related regulations implemented in September 2026, which expanded secondary sanctions, designated CUPET, and authorized tariffs on third-country oil suppliers after Venezuelan shipments ended earlier in the year. US policy permits limited fuel sales only to Cuba’s private sector while blocking state entities, with recent case-by-case humanitarian exceptions such as one Russian tanker delivery explicitly described by the White House as non-precedent-setting. Cuba’s new hydrocarbons law effective October 19 aims to attract foreign investment but does not alter US embargo rules or trigger sanction relief. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any formal easing announcement.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed. An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.