- Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?5¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration publicly announces that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" or any equivalent name which includes "Trump" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
President Trump's March and April 2026 remarks jokingly referring to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump," along with sharing a modified map on social media, reflected rhetorical commentary amid Iran-related tensions rather than a formal policy initiative. Unlike the January 2025 executive order renaming U.S. domestic features such as the Gulf of America, the Strait lies in international waters outside unilateral U.S. geographic naming authority under the Board on Geographic Names. No subsequent executive action, legislative proposal, or diplomatic effort has advanced an official change by August 2026. Traders price the 95% probability of "No" by December 31 accordingly, viewing the comments as symbolic and recognizing the structural barriers to altering an internationally recognized waterway name within the resolution window.