Trump out as President before 2027?
- Trump out as President before 2027?7¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
As the incumbent president in his second term, Donald Trump encounters no active impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment challenges, or credible congressional efforts to shorten his tenure as of mid-2026. Republican majorities in Congress have blocked opposition measures, while stable polling averages and policy focus on issues such as immigration enforcement and tariffs have sustained party cohesion. Historical precedent shows successful early removals remain rare without scandals or health crises capable of shifting the electoral math or Senate vote counts. The 93.5% implied probability for "No" captures this consensus among traders assessing low near-term removal risk before 2027.