- Trump out as President before 2027?2¢2%
Trump's continued tenure through the end of 2026 reflects the structural barriers to early removal, including the requirement for a two-thirds Senate vote for conviction following any House impeachment and the absence of conditions triggering the 25th Amendment. Recent Democratic gains in the 2026 midterms have shifted Congress toward greater oversight and potential investigations, yet these developments have not altered trader assessments of removal probability before the January 1, 2027 resolution date. Health concerns tied to the president's age have surfaced in reporting but lack evidence of incapacity that would prompt succession. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sudden medical event, unforeseen legal developments, or rapid erosion of institutional support, though none appear imminent based on current verified developments.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.