- Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?96¢96%
- Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?4¢4%
Victoria Broderick secured a narrow victory over incumbent Scott DesJarlais in Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, prevailing by 280 votes out of roughly 195,000 cast. Redistricting that added southeastern portions of Davidson County shifted the electorate enough for Broderick to dominate that area by over 25,000 votes while holding a slim edge in Rutherford County. Her low-budget, grassroots effort contrasted with DesJarlais’s limited campaigning amid a national midterm environment favoring Democrats. With unofficial results finalized and the race called, trader consensus reflects the completed vote count, though DesJarlais has not conceded and official certification remains pending. A successful recount or legal challenge could still alter the outcome before market resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).